Masters Thesis

[[PIMPIN]]

Lols. I am supposed to come up with the facts. So, when I strongly disagree, the PhD student says: just test it. =.= Maybe they forgot that I am Malaysian? =.=

On second thought, although the professor and the PhD student gives me my thesis marks, maybe I should review their thesis too...? Hohoho... I'll just dream about it...

How do you test something that has yet to happen? All you can do is project based on historical data. Find the figures for sales of passenger cars in Malaysia for past 10 years and if possible figures that state the respective market share % of the respective makes. Then go to your professor and say 'Look, if Proton (example) has experienced a 7% increase in market share every year for the past decade then its likely, should all things remain equal, that this trend would most likely continue. Past data is proof of a trend and indicates to some extent (although does not confirm) what will most likely continue to happen in the future.

Then ask the professor to test his theory or at least give three arguments to support his point of view, meaning sound and logical arguments absent of facts and figures but compelling enough to sway your way of thinking or at least persuade you to reevaluate your stance.

 

[hwahwa]

Very true. Past data may not be reliable.

Lols...the thing is, it is my fault too. I couldn't come up with 2 answer options. So, they tacitly imply "do you have anything better? no? then just use this sentence". Heck, I am a Marketing major all right but I am not that deep into cars (except F1). Took a class in Germany about Automotive Brand Management but got lost in it @.@ Managed to barely pass though @.@

lols... I have to defend (they call it defend, but it's a presentation) my thesis after writing it. So, he'll just throw the ball back into my court and say: this is your job - logical but compelling argument.

So, lately, I ended up having to proof that their idea doesn't work. The professor promised me that I need to only find 25 to 40 experts for the final survey. Suddenly, his PhD student told me to search for 300 emails online so that the professor can send invitations for the online survey. Out of 300 emails, they expect to have a response rate of 10%. To me, this is a hit-and-run style. Told them it won't work, and I would like to personally contact them by email so that they are aware of the survey and how it works.

They still insist that I find 300 emails. Dealing with Germans, I stressed what was promised earlier - 25 to 40 contacts. To Germans, whatever is promised earlier, stays but the PhD student is still uncomfortable with it. I had to paste The Star's 'Phishing Acts' article link and send to them to prove my point. Imagine receiving an email by a so-called foreign professor from Germany whose name is not Stiglitz (or any other Nobel Prize academicians). In the email, there's a link. Click it to go to our survey/database.

I will be the first person to click 'Spam' on the email and delete it. Not sure about others but if I don't know the person or totally not associated to this so-called EBS school, I would've ignored it, with or without the phishing alert.

 

[[PIMPIN]]

Very true. Past data may not be reliable.

Lols...the thing is, it is my fault too. I couldn't come up with 2 answer options. So, they tacitly imply "do you have anything better? no? then just use this sentence". Heck, I am a Marketing major all right but I am not that deep into cars (except F1). Took a class in Germany about Automotive Brand Management but got lost in it @.@ Managed to barely pass though @.@

lols... I have to defend (they call it defend, but it's a presentation) my thesis after writing it. So, he'll just throw the ball back into my court and say: this is your job - logical but compelling argument.

So, lately, I ended up having to proof that their idea doesn't work. The professor promised me that I need to only find 25 to 40 experts for the final survey. Suddenly, his PhD student told me to search for 300 emails online so that the professor can send invitations for the online survey. Out of 300 emails, they expect to have a response rate of 10%. To me, this is a hit-and-run style. Told them it won't work, and I would like to personally contact them by email so that they are aware of the survey and how it works.

They still insist that I find 300 emails. Dealing with Germans, I stressed what was promised earlier - 25 to 40 contacts. To Germans, whatever is promised earlier, stays but the PhD student is still uncomfortable with it. I had to paste The Star's 'Phishing Acts' article link and send to them to prove my point. Imagine receiving an email by a so-called foreign professor from Germany whose name is not Stiglitz (or any other Nobel Prize academicians). In the email, there's a link. Click it to go to our survey/database.

I will be the first person to click 'Spam' on the email and delete it. Not sure about others but if I don't know the person or totally not associated to this so-called EBS school, I would've ignored it, with or without the phishing alert.

No offence but from a non-academic point of view, the method proposed by your professor's PhD student seems destined for failure. Firstly, consider the small sample size - only 300 people contacted via email. I think the chances of getting even 10% replies that are useful or even worth citing in your paper are non-existent. Where are you going to get 300 email address from? How is the selection process done?

It's a different story altogether if you somehow managed to get 300 emails made up off people from the Government, consumers, manufacturers, retailers, etc all briefed prior to sending out email and have agreed to respond.

If it's just random, no one will take you seriously. And even if they do, they could be spewing even more rubbish than I am. But good luck with that method, it's disappointing that someone doing their PhD would suggest that method without knowing the local culture or attitude towards random queries, etc. Just look at how Malaysian's brush aside people in shopping centers, etc who try to hand out brochures. And that's BEFORE they even know what the brochures are about. I'd have thought that post-graduate students would be well-versed in research methods.

 

[hwahwa]

I think the chances of getting even 10% replies that are useful or even worth citing in your paper are non-existent.

I totally agree.

Where are you going to get 300 email address from? How is the selection process done?

Just grab it from the internet. Anyone who seems to be in the automotive industry.

If it's just random, no one will take you seriously. And even if they do, they could be spewing even more rubbish than I am. But good luck with that method, it's disappointing that someone doing their PhD would suggest that method without knowing the local culture or attitude towards random queries, etc.

You read my mind. That's exactly what I'm thinking. I have lived here for decades and the PhD student would only believe me after I copy + paste the news article link on phishing. Although I do not represent all Malaysian behaviour, but most of the things I do is Malaysian enough :D

I'd have thought that post-graduate students would be well-versed in research methods.

Again, you speak my mind. Germans always think that whatever works in Europe couldn't possibly not work in Asia. They just don't understand Asians. I had to do a lot of explaining of how and why we act like Asians do. In Europe, yes, 300 random emails will produce 10% of response rate, sometimes 20%. But never in Asia. Questionnaires here always starts from close friends and branch out to networking. Or else, as you said

Just look at how Malaysian's brush aside people in shopping centers, etc who try to hand out brochures. And that's BEFORE they even know what the brochures are about.

By the way, I need 30 people to do the final survey (my research in this thesis is still considered under pilot study. So, 30 to 40 people would be enough. The professor will extend the research himself as he is interested in it). I have 15 now. Need 15 more. Anyone out there who would like to help me? However, I would need name, company name and email address. Guess the anonymity in the forum would be gone.
Thanks.

 

[[PIMPIN]]

Just grab it from the internet. Anyone who seems to be in the automotive industry.

By the way, I need 30 people to do the final survey (my research in this thesis is still considered under pilot study. So, 30 to 40 people would be enough. The professor will extend the research himself as he is interested in it). I have 15 now. Need 15 more. Anyone out there who would like to help me? However, I would need name, company name and email address. Guess the anonymity in the forum would be gone.
Thanks.

Firstly, no guarantee they'll reply or even cooperate. Secondly, how sure are you that the people forming this sample are well placed within the industry and are privy to all sorts of information which might not be shared directly, but implied through their opinions and reasoning. Basically, how do you know that the people you have are 'those in the know?'

Thirdly, your research initially started off with a pretty holistic approach towards the passenger car industry in the year 2020 and that included both public and private sectors not to mention consumers as well. You mentioned several times about wanting to understand how buying decisions are affected, either by new technology or due to less purchasing power as an indirect result of fuel subsidy removals. So I have to ask, why aren't the public sector/government nor the consumers represented in the survey?

Anyway, I wish you all the best with your thesis. It surely sounds interesting or else I wouldn't have bothered with this thread and I hope that despite the flawed research methods imposed on you that all will end well. Hope you do post updates or maybe come back sometime - perhaps us non-automotive industry people can offer an insight or two from time to time. We live and breathe cars remember

 

[pangyau]

interesting topic to discuss but i'm not a very knowledgeable.
from my point of view it's all depend of power of buying by certain community/target research.

Malaysian getting better in soft structure/knowledge due to improvement of education.
But the structural seems stagnant due to less money on development/investment.

Refer on the topic given "Understanding the Business Environment of the Automotive Industry in Malaysia"
mostly reflect the PROTON, PERODUA & NAZA as a local manufacture or reproduction.

PROTON seems loosing their handling from LOTUS as they always used this brand for their marketing.
Loosing LOTUS in their grip will effect their sales. Now they "maybe" team up again with MITSUBISHI.

PERODUA they mostly produce small car (replicate form other maker).
Their price are competitive due to parts sharing by other maker.
The most selling product in Malaysia.

NAZA taking advantage of re branding.

Sometime this so called manufacture always killing their Vendor/Supplier due to margin/cost limitation set by them
So the Vendor/Supplier have to supply base on cost not quality. Will result many inconvenience to buyer/end user.
Malaysian auto industry don't make it for people or improvement only among them self (same player).

Refer to current situation, some Malaysian doesn't care about any issue of Automotive Industry.
They will concentrate how to survive due to fuel cost getting high & higher reflecting other product.
If power of buying of Malaysian people getting worst then the sales will drop to "ground".
Auto industry will be closing or else.

just my 2 cents....

 

[hwahwa]

why aren't the public sector/government nor the consumers represented in the survey?

The public sector/government are represented in the survey. Consumers who understand the industry well are welcome as well.

how do you know that the people you have are 'those in the know?'

@.@ I have no idea. @.@ My professor understands the automotive sector in India and China very well. Since India and China are Asian, it applies in Malaysia as well (basically, that is his reasoning). For me, of course it doesn't make sense but I didn't press further explanation as it was the first time we met and I didn't understand what to ask and I did not know what I do not understand then.

Basically, the professor wants to use this study to set up workshops for automotive experts and engineers. How he will do that, I do not know. Furthermore, whatever that is responded in the survey, I have to analyse and interpret the results. Basically, I have to come up with a 'story' to tie up all the comments, feedback and result @.@

Hope you do post updates or maybe come back sometime - perhaps us non-automotive industry people can offer an insight or two from time to time.

Thank you for the best wishes. Yes, I will update this post after I get feedback. Thank you very much for all the warm support.

---------- Post added at 03:25 PM ---------- 6 hour anti-bump limit - Previous post was at 03:19 PM ----------

[/COLOR]

If power of buying of Malaysian people getting worst then the sales will drop to "ground".

I agree. In my opinion, the government will still continue to protect this industry or else many people will be jobless.

NAZA taking advantage of re branding.
Sometime this so called manufacture always killing their Vendor/Supplier due to margin/cost limitation set by them
So the Vendor/Supplier have to supply base on cost not quality. Will result many inconvenience to buyer/end user.
Malaysian auto industry don't make it for people or improvement only among them self (same player).

Thanks. I didn't know about all these. I will look it up.

just my 2 cents....

Worths more than that to me :D

 

[[PIMPIN]]

My professor understands the automotive sector in India and China very well. Since India and China are Asian, it applies in Malaysia as well (basically, that is his reasoning). For me, of course it doesn't make sense but I didn't press further explanation as it was the first time we met and I didn't understand what to ask and I did not know what I do not understand then.

IMHO, your professor is pretty much full of it. Look at the Malaysian passenger car market - one of the highest ratio to population in the world. Compare that with India, with its hard infrastructure very much underdeveloped and although Tata Group does own Range Rover for example, the transfer of knowledge has yet to actually happen. Even if there is an explosion in automotive knowledge, do remember the purchasing power of the Indian population and the massive congestion that already overwhelms their major cities and this is before the majority of the population actually own a lot of cars.

China also is very much different from Malaysia. Think about it this way - with 1.3 billion people or so and at least 700 million still living in poverty, this is a country that produces more than it consumes. Most of what China produces aren't actually bought or used by their own people. We're talking about over half a billion people who have yet to own the basic electrical appliances we take for granted what more owning their first car? The prospect for growth in bloody tremendous and the demand from that one country alone can literally prop up the entire automotive industry. So to compare it to Malaysia is like comparing apples and oranges.

I could explain it better but I gotta go out, late already. :wavey:

 

[teo1957]

Another thing to consider is the possibility of Proton merging with a foreign partner like the previously much anticipated Volkswagen deal and the amount of technology transfer that will occur. Obviously merging with such a huge manufacturer would mean lower costs of production, access to knowledge, access to inventory (you know how small parts are used across many different makes that belong to the same company like interior switches, etc). This in turn will build the Proton brand and who knows in 10 years we may see Passat based replacements for Perdana, effectively stealing market share away from Toyota Camry, Honda Accord and other alternatives.

Kindly bear in mind, in case of mergers, Proton carries a huge social responsibility (or you can say baggage).

If Proton merges, will it be able to carry along it's vendors: APM, Teck See Plastics, Hirotako, HICOM, Autokeen, Tracoma, UMW, PATCO, etc.?

Will VW for example, be willing to buy parts manufactured by these vendors?

These are just several names in Proton's long list of vendors. The list is long enough for the vendors to even have their own association: Proton Vendors Association. If all these factories downsize or even closed, I think riot will happen. We are not talking about few hundreds workers here...

If say simply want to abolish national car policy, who will create jobs for the workers of these vendors? VW?

 

[[PIMPIN]]

Kindly bear in mind, in case of mergers, Proton carries a huge social responsibility (or you can say baggage).

If Proton merges, will it be able to carry along it's vendors: APM, Teck See Plastics, Hirotako, HICOM, Autokeen, Tracoma, UMW, PATCO, etc.?

Will VW for example, be willing to buy parts manufactured by these vendors?

These are just several names in Proton's long list of vendors. The list is long enough for the vendors to even have their own association: Proton Vendors Association. If all these factories downsize or even closed, I think riot will happen. We are not talking about few hundreds workers here...

If say simply want to abolish national car policy, who will create jobs for the workers of these vendors? VW?

Obviously with progress there are companies and employees who will lose out. Not just in the automotive industry but across the board, foreign investment will ALWAYS go to whichever country that can provide the best product for the lowest price, supported by strong local knowledge and conducive business environment created by the government of that particular country.

So to continue to protect what is in effect a public listed company for the sake of the various vendors means that in the long run, Proton will lose out. Unfortunate, but that's the reality the world is facing today. Additionally, as a company by right the Board of Proton is answerable to the shareholders and they should have the shareholders best interests in mind when making all decisions and its up to the vendors to step-up. I know its easier said than done, but business is business. Money has no loyalty nor does it care about people and the lives affected but it goes to where its returns are maximized.

I see where you're coming from and I agree that what you've raised is a very very real concern butthe risk of what you've highlighted becoming a reality is a very real possibility. I'm not saying I don't feel for the workers, but sometimes what the market dictates is beyond the realm of what you and I can realistically control. It's not like I'm holding the fate of all these people in my hands.

Anyway, why wouldn't VW buy parts from these vendors if in future the transfer of knowledge and technology allows them to raise their standards and become one of the supply chain manufacturers within the VW group. This is what we've been discussing for the past couple of pages - the local industry rising to a level where its part of a JIT supply chain come 2020.

 

[teo1957]

Anyway, why wouldn't VW buy parts from these vendors if in future the transfer of knowledge and technology allows them to raise their standards and become one of the supply chain manufacturers within the VW group. This is what we've been discussing for the past couple of pages - the local industry rising to a level where its part of a JIT supply chain come 2020.

VW would not buy parts from these vendors because VW has it's own baggage too.

If Proton has it's long list of vendors, VW's list should be longer.

When Malaysia decides to build a car based on a Japanese model, it does not only involve Mitsubishi as a parts supplier. Hirotako came here to open factory, Denso, Clarion, etc. all Japanese companies come here. All create jobs. But that was back in the 80s.

If VW were to came here in the 80s, they would have to bring their own army of parts suppliers too. But nowadays, China is already open. Every company wanna relocate their manufacturing facilities to China. Japanese companies oso wanna relocate to China. We oso have to relearn Mandarin.

We can talk about rising local standards but for Germany why spend money for 'rising' standards when they already have 'rised' standards. Malaysian companies strive for TUV, Germany invented TUV.

 

[DanzEterna]

PIMPIN,
i think u should be an automobile engineering lecturer

 

[[PIMPIN]]

We can talk about rising local standards but for Germany why spend money for 'rising' standards when they already have 'rised' standards. Malaysian companies strive for TUV, Germany invented TUV.

I think I've pointed out this fact from the beginning but at the end of the day, its hwahwa's thesis and it doesn't even have to involve Volkswagen if he can come up with some other way of assessing the passenger car market. He still has the consumers, government hard and soft infrastructure etc to delve into so no reason to even contrast German and Malaysian engineering I suppose.

Even so, we're talking about the automotive industry in the year 2010. That's nearly a decade - anything can happen really and some of it probably even beyond the realm of our imaginations. For example, who would have thought the Big Three in the US would have ended up the way they did or that Toyota would ever post a loss in earnings for the first time ever until it happened? In order to forecast what will happen in 10 years time, taking into account the technological advances and liberealisation of markets it doesn't hurt to think outside of the box especially in hwahwa's case.

But I agree with what you say regarding VW's vendors. Similar to what Proton has I guess only in VW's case its more profit driven and subject to market forces of supply, demand, cost, etc rather than protectionism by the Government as they operate across not many countries.

PIMPIN,
i think u should be an automobile engineering lecturer

Dude, I've never even studied the subject. Don't even work in the industry. Only rempit sector of the automotive market LOL

 

[hwahwa]

Wow... dear all, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts...

Was away for 'war' (some other issues to tend to).

PIMPIN, things have became from bad to worse. I'm just going to close an eye. The PhD student rephrased all the answer options again and I don't even want to comment. Will post it out if you guys are interested. Will start the formal online survey/database hopefully this week.

VW is interested in the Malaysian markets for a lot of reasons. Germans are very bad at understanding the Asian culture. And they do not understand the Muslims. To them the Turks are Muslims as a general. Malaysia may open many of such doors (as in culturally). You never know, they might even come up with 'halal' cars (joking).

Although they already have a plant in China, they are interested in Malaysia. Maybe it's diverse investment. Maybe it's more advantageous to expand in ASEAN. They do not have a strong base here, yet.

I would deem it very advantageous for Malaysia if VW decides to open a plant here, thereby, dragging all its supply chains to set up base here. People will have more jobs, yes. But of course, to make it very advantageous, comes at the cost of Proton. It's give and/or take.

The main difficulty for my thesis is not the car companies. Market leader = Perodua + Proton. What's so hard? It is always so and would always be, unless Proton is no longer there anymore... which will never happen, since the government labelled it as our national pride.

My main problem, the problem of all problems, was writing about the suppliers, the automotive components industry. My professor wanted to sweet talk me into writing about it. I declined. Let's just talk about cars... and only cars! Large automotive components suppliers are only a handful e.g. HICOM and other Proton suppliers. We have a very fragmented components industry and not as developed as in Germany. Compared to Germany, we still have a long way to go. That is also a headache for me.

And, knowing Malaysians, I do not know what feedback they are going to write for this survey. What if they give all sorts of diverse answers and I'll have a headache interpreting all these comments. Or, they would not comment at all and just rate the online survey... that will be horribly interesting.

By the way, I would love it if VW comes and 'organises' our fragmented automotive components industry. That will make us strong.